How can the energy future be mapped without data?

Following its annual outlook released the week of Nov. 9,  the IEA repeated its prediction in a CNN report that oil supplies would rise to 105 million barrels by 2030 under current government policy.  Totally false, according to two IEA employees who recently discussed their views in an interview (prompting the IEA to repeat their predictions).  They contend the IEA is feeling pressure from the United States to inflate predictions so the markets don’t fly into a tizzy.  One of them said, “there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further.”

But there is obviously another force at work that will likely impact the world markets outside he supply question – Congress is considering legislation to mandate lower emissions from industry either through European “cap and trade” schemes or an outright tax.  Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson said in a speech at an APEC summit in Singapore that he advocates for a carbon tax rather than carbon trading.

In a recent Reuters article , Tillerson said that carbon emissions were expected to rise by 1 percent each year for the next two decades.  He said investing in natural gas was one way to slow it down, easing the financial burden on producers.

“Stemming the rise in greenhouse gases is a challenge. One way of expanding supply and reducing emissions is to invest in technologies to bring more natural gas to the Asia Pacific region,” he said.

Exxon CEO Rex Tillerson

In addition, Tillerson said natural gas usage will likely spike more than 50 percent globally by 2030 and that Asia-Pacific region use alone will rise by 130 percent.

At this year’s Global Refining Strategies Summit in Houston, talk of CO2 legislation and the need for more investment in green technology dominated discussions over the two-day conference.  It wasn’t a question of “if” the U.S. government would make a decision on emissions, but when, as well as what steps industry should take today to prepare.   It is also why presenters from SWAPSOL Corp. earned so much attention with their discovery of converting CO2 into harmless compounds.

SWAPSOL scientists continue their work.  It will be interesting to see how the public dialogue shifts with new attention directed to what actually is possible.